Researchers from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford University have issued an alarming statement saying that the world’s capacity to meet projected future oil demand is getting to be at an irreversible stage.
This simply means that the age of cheap oil, as we know it, is reaching a tipping point where demand starts to outstrip supply. In a paper published in the journal Energy Policy, it says that this condition could start happening within this decade as they suggest that the current oil reserves estimates should be downgraded from between 1150-1350 billion barrels to between 850-900 billion barrels.
The question now ahead of us is: How could the onslaught of high fuel demand be mitigated especially from emerging industrialized countries like China, India and Brazil?
Dr. Oliver Inderwildi, Head of the Low Carbon Mobility center at the Smith School, said: ‘The common belief that alternative fuels such as biofuels could mitigate oil supply shortages and eventually replace fossil fuels is pie in the sky. There is not sufficient land to cater for both food and fuel demand. Instead of relying on those silver bullet solutions, we have to make better use of the remaining resources by improving energy efficiency. Alternatives such as a hydrogen economy and electric transportation are not mature and will only play a major role in the medium to long term.”
What is important to remember perhaps is that whatever alternative fuel resources there will be in the future it should be one that continues to be relatively affordable with low carbon content that can meet the demands of a stringent environmental policy.
Unless governments and businesses join hands in swiftly finding solution for an alternative fuel to ensure energy security and/or mitigate oil supply shortages, the world may face an uncertain future far more serious and devastating than the global economic uncertainty nations have experienced during the past two years.
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