After Gaddafi, will Syria’s Assad be next?

 

Syria strongman Bashar al Assad and Libya's dead tyrant

One can’t help but wonder how Syria’s strongman Bashar al Assad viewed Muammar Gaddafi’s brutal ending?

Being birds of the same feather, has Gaddafi’s savage and gruesome death taught Assad a lesson; enlightened him to change gear, slow down and start listening to the moans and groans of the Syrian people instead of recklessly running them over with his tanks and cutting them up with bullets?

The turmoil in Syria, which is still a product of the continuing Arab revolution that has claimed success in deposing Libya’s mad dog, has the signs that could go just as bad as it went in Libya.

But what is feared by world leaders is that with Syria’s central geographical location in the Middle East, a Libya-like revolution may easily beget uprisings in the neighboring countries of Jordan and Saudi Arabia and may embroil even Turkey. This is the last thing that Washington and its allies want to see happening in this part of the world.

The West and the NATO forces were emboldened to help the rebels in Libya because no prominent world leader or nation was siding with the tyrant Gaddafi, not even by any member of the Arab league.

It is said that there never was a great filial loyalty among leaders of North Africa and the Levant towards the disgraced and dead Libyan leader. Gaddafi had consistently lampooned the Arab League and occasionally even plotted against its kings and presidents.

Another thing that makes the Syria situation different from Libya is the unconditional support Assad and his Syrian government is getting from Iran. Between hardliner President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the world is anxious and at the same time cautious while watching what this rouge, predominantly Shi’ite nation is up to.

It must be remembered that the Assad family is from the Alawite community, which makes up about 10% of the country’s population. He has ruled by putting Alawites in the top levels of the country’s security services and armed forces.

A Shi’ite branch of Islam, the Alawites is said to have relied heavily on Iranian military equipment and training to maintain their grip on power.

This is the reason why Assad feels untouchable and has decided instead to dig his heels and put a tougher stance for his autocratic government by using tanks, snipers and gangster-like hired gunmen known as “shabiha” to silence the opposition rather than meet the demands of a population that wants him to step down.

What is energizing Assad further is the fact that Syrian opposition leaders have not called for an armed uprising and have for the most part opposed foreign intervention.